Table 3

EPIFIL and LYMFASIM predictions of the number of yearly mass treatment rounds that is required to reach a 0.5% microfilaraemia prevalence threshold. Results are shown for mass treatment with a combination diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole, and for various endemicity and coverage levels. The combination treatment is assumed to kill 55% of all adult worms and 95% of the microfilariae, and to interrupt the microfilaria production for 6 months. EPIFIL's predictions were made with a model without acquired immunity. LYMFASIM predictions, from the model with anti-L3 immunity, were added for comparison for an average pretreatment microfilaraemia prevalence of 10%. Details of the variability between LYMFASIM runs are included in the lower part of the table. The EPIFIL predictions were reprinted from [28], with permission from Elsevier

Coverage

Pretreatment mf prevalence

60%

70%

80%

90%

EPIFIL

2.5%

7

6

5

4

5%

9

7

6

5

10%

10

8

7

6

15%

12

9

8

7

LYMFASIM ^a

10% (p5 – p95: 8.8% – 11.4%)

10

8

6

5

Details of the 100 simulation runs on which the LYMFASIM estimations were based:

Average mf prevalence, 1 year after last treatment round (p5 – p95)

0.49 (0.29–0.73)

0.39 (0.25–0.58)

0.42 (0.24–0.64)

0.33 (0.22–0.47)

Number of runs (%) with zero mf prevalence 40 years after start of treatment, out of the total number that

- had achieved the 0.5% threshold

35/51 (69%)

79/86 (92%)

62/70 (89%)

90/97 (93%)

- had NOT achieved the 0.5% threshold

16/49 (33%)

8/14 (57%)

18/30 (60%)

1/3 (33%)

^a Based on the average trend in microfilaraemia prevalence of 100 simulation runs.

Stolk et al. Filaria Journal 2006 5:5   doi:10.1186/1475-2883-5-5